DNC - Day 4 - Obama

So here we are, the final night of the DNC, outdoors at Mile High. While the first night of the convention was a little shaky, since Hillary gave her speech easing the tension, the convention has been focused. Definite theme of "McCain = More of the Same; Obama = Change We Need." However, the success of the convention rests on how Obama’s speech relates to the public. But first, we suffer through a litany of speakers with the same speech writer, rehashing ever less uniquely the week’s theme. To quickly get to Obama’s speech, I’ll sum up in a sentence or two the preceding speakers.

Gov. Tim Kaine: Evidently, his assignment was this: use every biblical cliché you can think of, speak Spanish for a few seconds, get off the stage.

Al Gore: young people are smart because they support Obama, old people are dumb. And Barack Obama is a reincarnation of Abraham Lincoln. And if Gore had been president, the climate crisis would be solved and 9/11 would have never happened.

Obama video: Very well done. Of course, it was sappy and over-the-top, but the images, narration, life story it told would connect with viewers. Additionally, Obama’s appeal to young voters is recognized by the music selections for the second half of the video. Obama won the primary by attracting many new and young voters. Traditionally, young voters do not vote. If these voters follow historical trends, Obama loses. If they remain energized, Obama wins. The electorate is still heavily polarized. If the new voters vote, then Obama will be able to squeak by where Kerry and Gore couldn’t – on the electoral map. Getting young voters, 18-30 year olds, to the polls in November is critical for the Obama campaign.

The Speech Setting: Obama is a phenomenal orator. Obviously, that’s why he’s where he is today, thanks to his keynote address four years ago. And his campaign has staging and visuals down. They may be too good at it, hence Obama’s celebrity status. But the atmosphere was great – packed stadium, striking backdrop (many said it looked like the Greek ruins, I think it looked like the White House). Obama enters to U2’s “City of Blinding Lights,” which is the song he has used throughout his campaign as entry music. There was even a shot of a crying girl in the audience. Obama is a rock star celebrity whether he wants to admit it or not. And this setting amplified that fact. So much so, that I nearly fell of the couch laughing when Obama said with “great humility” he accepts the nomination to be president. 80,000-in-a-football-stadium-with-all-this-hype-kind-of-humility.

The Theme: Obama was attempting to straddle the fence and be liberal and moderate at the same time. He definitely gave a speech aimed at independents rather than party faithful, while attacking McCain to give the faithful red meat. His theme seemed to come down to allowing government to do what people can’t do on their own, while restoring status of America around the world. He also spent time delineating the differences, as he sees them, between John McCain and himself. He has to prove that he is tough enough to withstand the next few weeks. He has to prove that he can be an effective Commander-in-Chief.

Obama listed his plan: tax cuts for 95%, end dependence on oil in 10 years, “world class education,” Healthcare for everyone, protect Social Security, be better people.

Pros: No one delivers a speech better. I liked his line about the need for both individual responsibility and mutual responsibility. He re-iterated many of the points he made four years ago when he discussed getting beyond red states and blue states. He certainly attempted to convey that he would be capable of defending the country as Commander-in-Chief. He addressed a desire for post-partisanship

Cons: No presidential candidate should have the need to assure voters that they are patriotic. First Michelle said she loves America, now Obama says he is patriotic. This cannot be a good thing that the campaign felt the need to address this. On his specifics, how will he pay for all these programs? How will he pay for healthcare, for college education for everyone? How will he end oil dependency, protect Social Security? Higher taxes? On whom? While he distorted McCain’s joke about $5 million being rich, Obama believes rich is $40,000. If we’re talking about raising taxes on the rich, I like McCain’s joking reference better.

Obama mentions that he will go through the budget and strike everything he doesn’t want. That’s great, except that the president does not have the power of a line-item veto. So unless he is planning on pulling a Putin and taking control of the legislature too, he’s going to have to rely on Congress. On global problems, he criticized Bush’s “go it alone” strategy, but then seemed to convey that he can single-handedly change world leaders’ minds and make them act nice. And on parenting, how will he make people be better parents?

One of the things that Obama has mastered is the art of double-speak. On abortion, he “reached out” to pro-lifers by saying he wanted to end unwanted pregnancies. How is that helpful, since abortion is a way to end an unwanted pregnancy? Why didn’t he say he wanted to work to make abortion rare, so rare that eventually no one would choose to kill their baby? Why didn’t he at least agree with the partial-birth ban or the born-alive protection act? On gun control – who favors criminals having AK-47s? On alternative energy – is he now in favor of coal and nuclear power? He seemed to say so tonight. Also, the speech ran about 45 minutes. Did people watch it and stay tuned in?

The Effect: So how effective is this speech. I give him an A. But how many people will vote for him now that wouldn’t before? How influential is the whole convention process? He seems to be receiving a slight bounce. As a result of this speech, I would guess he’ll be up by 10-12 points by Sunday. But the American people have short memories. Come November 4, will anyone remember either convention?

The Obama campaign should be happy with tonight. While the celebrity label was reinforced, the delivery was good. For people who don’t know much about Obama, they’ll think he’s a moderate. It places Obama back on offense for the first time in a couple of weeks. We’ll see if he can sustain it after next week as the Republicans gather in Minneapolis.