Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Happy Birthday Claire Bear

What!? You're 4? How can this be?
It seems like only yesterday, you were turning 3?
These years, they're flying by too fast.
If I'm not careful, your whole childhood will be in the past.
So I ask if you will skip your birthday and stay 3-
You smile and laugh at me and think I'm being silly-
You say, "I want to grow up, daddy, and turn 4."
I'll just have to cherish each day more and more,
So let's read, let's ride bikes, let's paint everything pink
I'll even let you play all you want with your toothbrush in the sink.
I want you to know no matter what I'll always be there,
Because I love you so much my beautiful Claire Bear!

Happy Birthday

Monday, October 20, 2008

Was Palin the Right Choice?

In the pre-post-mortem that many are participating in concerning McCain/Palin, I thought I would reflect over what the pundits are saying contributed to McCain's demise. (Although, while it appears Obama is headed to victory, the polls are closing quickly. Over the past week the average poll has gone from Obama up 7.5% to now Obama up 5%. So, yet again, Obama is failing to close.) The first issue is the selection of Sarah Palin as VP. Before I discuss that, it should be noted what the true possible demise of the McCain campaign is. It has nothing to do with Palin, the negative ads, McCain's age, etc. What will be McCain's downfall is a shattered economy, the Bush presidency, and the Iraq War, of which McCain is not directly responsible for any of it, but receives the blame because of the R next to his name. But on to Palin

The general argument against Palin is as follows (which by the way is what I predicted here): no experience, not intellectually capable, too conservative, no one has ever heard of her before. While I could refute each of these claims, the simple fact of the matter is: Palin was and still is the best choice that McCain could make for VP, and if given the chance, she would make a great VP. Why is she the best choice? Because campaigns are all about turnout. And McCain was having a turnout issue. The selection of Palin: highly enthused the conservative base, a strong turnout of which is essential for McCain to have any shot at all; brought increased attention/money to McCain that he otherwise wouldn't have had; resonates with many in the heartland of America as someone not tainted by Washington; fought her own corrupt party and won. Many voters went from voting against Obama to voting for McCain because of Palin. Turnout is always better when someone is excited to be voting for someone rather than against another. There was no other available selection that McCain could have made that would have done more for his campaign than Palin has. Let's review:

Mitt Romney - no independents would be voting for Romney, he does not resonate with middle class America , and the conservative base would not be energized by a Romney selection. While he is a favorite of talk radio hosts, he had been rejected by Republicans in the primary.

Tim Pawlenty - please. He seems like a nice guy, but I don’t think anyone at all would have been enthused by his selection. He would have received about 5 minutes worth of coverage and then would have disappeared. Turn out would not have been increased by Pawlenty at all.

Charlie Crist - He may have helped deliver Florida , but I am not sure he would have brought anything more to the ticket.

Kay Bailey Hutchison - My second choice, but while she may have appealed to the Hillary voter, I think many in the Republican base would have been put off by her, fair or not, and she wouldn’t have reinforced McCain's reform message.

Joe Lieberman - This is the pick many pundits say McCain should have made. It would have been a disaster. McCain would be out of money, the crowds would have been sparse, and Democrats would still have voted for Obama. I'm not sure Lieberman did anything for Gore in 2000, I don’t see how he would have done anything for McCain except fracture the Republican Party (more than it already is). That being said, I think McCain should have said that he would be his Secretary of State. I think McCain could have named many of the people he would like in his cabinet to help with his bipartisan approach.

Mike Huckabee - Maybe the only other viable candidate that could have helped McCain almost as much as Palin. But his draw is southern, and for all the Obama gains, McCain still has the south in is corner. Palin and Huckabee both have a Populist bent. Huckabee is a better articulator of it, but probably still draws less enthusiasm than Palin does.

Bobby Jindal - Apparently wasn't interested. And he's 37. If McCain loses, then I think Jindal could very well be the nominee in 2012. He would bring the enthusiasm of Palin, but he would also bring better communication skills with the media than Palin has.

Running through that list just re-confirms that Palin was and is the best available pick for McCain. McCain would have been down 10 points in September if he hadn't picked Palin. Picking her gave him a temporary lead. What has crushed McCain's campaign is not Palin. It's the economy and Bush. The media and liberal talking heads like to point to Palin because she is a threat to their ideals. She's a strong, pro-life, conservative woman who has risen the ranks without having to cater to the NOW group or Planned Parenthood to get there. Her values disqualify her as a woman in their eyes, and so they must destroy her so she will not succeed. Blaming McCain's failures on her is one way to do that. What's hurt Palin more than anything is the way the McCain campaign handled her early on. They re-emphasized the suspicion of the media by keeping her sequestered and trying to get her to speak like an insider. It's not who she is and it showed. Unfortunately that image has been seared in the public's mind, so even though she has campaigned strongly and been much smoother in her dealings with the press lately, she is trying to overcome the first impression. I am still in support of Palin as VP, and think she would be great in Washington . If John McCain loses, it will not be because of her.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

G's Presidential Endorsement

We love dinosaurs and McCain/Sarah.

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Second Presidential Debate: Feel the Breeze

This was a debate of missed opportunities for both candidates, but especially for McCain. In a post this morning, I laid out what I thought each candidate should do tonight. So how did they do?

Obama: 1. Focus on last eight years and tie McCain to it. I don’t think Obama was as effective tonight on this as he was in the first debate. He tried to make the case against the Bush administration, but failed to connect. Some of this is due to McCain’s attack of the Democrats for Freddie and Fannie and McCain’s plan to renegotiate mortgages. Obama did not answer the accusation or counter McCain’s proposal, thus failing to effectively tie McCain to Bush. In fact, Obama seemed unprepared to answer the Freddie/Fannie link at all.
2. Avoid Senatorial talk. Obama did an excellent job of communicating his message tonight. Even though he consistently talked beyond the time limit, he had moments in almost every answer that could be reduced to a sound bite, which is important in the way we evaluate candidates today. However, when discussing foreign policy, Obama sounded very unsure of himself. He came closest to his rambling style in this part of the debate. On genocide, he only said that we would probably “consider” action, when I think the better response would have been that we would take action. He was also shakier on Iran than he was in the first debate and continues to ignore the success of the surge.
3. Don’t wander off script. He remained on message tonight, ignoring for the most part any attack by McCain. While remaining on script is good, I think he missed an opportunity to answer McCain’s critiques. And his discussion on limiting people’s energy use opens the door for people to view him as too heavy handed on government regulation. While people want to conserve to save money, I don’t think most Americans want to be told the government will limit their usage of energy. A misstep by Obama, but nobody probably caught it.

McCain: 1. Drill, Baby, Drill on economy. I thought he was going to get there, but I think he fell short of adequately selling his policy. He didn’t answer Obama’s shifting position on energy, although the debate format didn’t really allow for too much back and forth like this. But when asked which was most important to address: entitlements, energy, or health care, McCain swung and missed badly. I felt the breeze in my living room. He should have hammered home the need for energy reform here. How lower energy costs would make everything else more affordable. How our economy began to tank when gas prices went up. His answer of doing all three took away from an effective advantage I believe he has over Obama on energy. That was a missed opportunity for McCain at a time he cannot afford missed opportunities.
2. Explain why lower taxes are good. I think McCain did a good job explaining this, whether it connected with the voter is another matter. Also, on connecting with the voter, McCain seemed completely oblivious to the question of what sacrifices need to be made during these economic times. He focused solely on earmarks and government spending, when I thought he had the perfect, I mean fastball down the middle, to re-state an effective part of his convention speech – serving something greater than your own self interest. Where was the answer for personal responsibility, for shared sacrifice that he spoke of before? Huge mistake here as Obama basically used it in response, taking away a good point McCain has made in the past.
3. Attack Obama’s worldview. This was another missed opportunity. I don’t think he effectively called into question Obama’s philosophy. He began very well, attacking Obama and the Democrats for their support of Freddie and Fannie and subprime mortgages. I thought he would continue in this way throughout the debate, but really didn’t too much more. Maybe he was gun shy, but I think he should have done more here. While not directly addressing Obama’s worldview, McCain’s answer to the final question was one of his best. The question: “What don’t you know and how will you learn it?” McCain said while he doesn’t know what will happen when he’s president, he does know from his experience how to handle the unknowable situations when they arise. For people questioning Obama’s readiness to be president, McCain presented himself as the one most ready to lead.

Overall, I thought of the three debates so far, including the VP one, this was the worst. Nothing imaginative about the questions, nothing new from the candidates, except McCain’s government buy out of mortgages. Nothing to change the trajectory of the race. While this is to Obama’s favor, I don’t think he shined tonight either. Midway through the debate, I kind of thought to myself, “These are the two best candidates we could come up with?” Thinking back over the primaries, the answer is sadly, “Yes.” But it seemed that neither candidate wanted to step out and lead tonight. Obama is in prevent, running out the clock; McCain is either unwilling to go after Obama in person, or is hoping for an unforced turnover, because he didn’t do much to change the game tonight either.

Tom Brokaw did a fine job as moderator, although instead of wasting time talking about how the candidates were wasting time, he should have cut them off once, then they might have gotten the picture. But I thought his follow ups were the best questions of the night, while the “undecided voter” questions could have been submitted by Lehrer or Ifill from the first two debates. I don’t see this debate changing the lead Obama currently enjoys. With only one debate left, if the polls still show Obama with an eight point lead next Wednesday, look for a brutal debate in the final showdown between the two candidates.

Pre-Debate Thoughts

So what should each candidate do tonight during the town hall debate? With Obama holding a significant lead, with only 28 days left until Election Day, what strategy should each candidate have tonight?

First, the town hall debate format. Tonight's questions are supposedly coming from undecided voters and the questions from "MySpace" users. That's debatable. While the town hall format is McCain's favorite, I expect the audience and questions to be leaning Democrat, as is usually the case in these types of debates. In 1992, the town hall debate sealed the deal for Clinton. While Bush looked at his watch and looked totally bored and confused, Clinton mastered the art of "feeling your pain." Whatever one's thoughts on Clinton, this question and answer basically ushered in the Clinton Presidency.

So how should the candidates approach the debate tonight? If I were running Obama's campaign, here would be my advice: Continue to talk about Bush and tie McCain to him. Don't sound defensive in any attacks on you, just dismiss them as old news from a "campaign out of ideas." Don't wander off the script. Try to work in "new direction," "restoring our image in the world," and "American values" into your answers. Don't get bogged down in Senatorial talk, don't sound arrogant, but be humble and talk about the "privilege to serve this great country." Stay above the personal attacks on McCain, instead commend his character, disagree with his ideas.

For McCain: Make sure you articulate an economic plan beyond earmarks. Drill, baby, drill, on how gas prices affect not only filling up your car, but grocery prices, electric bills, etc. Drill away at how your plan utilizes the country's resources, working to develop alternatives, creating more jobs at home, lowering prices for everyone, and taking us off our dependence on foreign oil. And how this can be done environmentally friendly. Explain why lower taxes are good and how you can balance the budget. Remind the viewers how inept government is in solving our problems, and how foolish it would be to let the government take more control of health care. But along with what you will do, you must attack Obama's plans, worldview, and influential people in his past and present, about his own statements as well, without being too blatant about it. Address your attack directly to Obama, making him answer. Look at the camera when talking about your ideas. Don't worry about how the people in the audience respond, but what the viewer at home hears. Gamble on the idea that most voters have not heard these attacks before, or had forgotten about them. And call these facts and not attacks.

McCain has the more formidable challenge tonight. Whereas Obama is only running against Bush, McCain is running against Obama and Bush, attempting to attract independents without ticking off some in the Republican base in the process. McCain needs to make the campaign about Obama again, that's the only shot he has. We'll see what unfolds tonight.

Sunday, October 05, 2008

Theology With Claire

This morning on the way to church, Claire asked me if God made everything. I said, “Yes.” She said, “Even the dinosaurs?” I said, “Yes, Claire, and He made you too. He put you together in mommy’s tummy.” To that she responded, “I don’t remember that.”

Thursday, October 02, 2008

The Highly Anticipated Vice Presidential Debate

We made it safely down the tracks. Both Sen. Biden and Gov. Palin kept themselves from derailment – no train wreck, no “moose in the headlights” for Palin, no “gaffe machine” for Biden. I must admit, coming into tonight, I was very nervous for Gov. Palin. After a very rough couple of weeks where the national interviews hadn’t gone so well, I wasn’t sure how she would do tonight. I knew Biden would be a good debater. He was good in the Democratic Primary, often dismantling Clinton, Obama, Richardson, and others in a single phrase. One of the major reasons Obama picked him as his running mate is because of his ability to debate and go after his opponents. Biden definitely did that tonight. He went after McCain (much of which was not true, but he did go after him). He was the classic VP candidate attack dog. Biden epitomizes Washington politics; his entire adult life has been spent in DC. So it is expected that he will do well. But as well as he did all year in debates, he only garnered 1% of the vote. So does his personality relate to people? Is it helpful for him to refer to himself in the third person? Is it really believable that Joe Biden often walks down the aisles of Home Depot looking for screws or nails? Is it even possible for the 3rd most liberal member of the Senate to enact change and bipartisanship (especially when his running mate is #1)? Overall, Biden was tough and did well in the debate.

At the opening of the debate, Palin seemed a little nervous. But she heated up as the debate went on. Palin is obviously not as polished as Biden. She doesn’t know how to spin a question as smoothly as Biden. And here’s the quandary with her. People criticize her for not being Washington savvy. But where has Washington savvy gotten us? She has been criticized for not being competent. But tonight, she seemed quite capable of handling economic and international issues. Her most forceful response dealt with Iraq and Iran. Her true expertise shined on energy. She spoke well of how tax increases would hurt the already struggling economy, tax increases that Biden refers to as “patriotic.” She rightfully called out Biden and Obama on their flip flops, although not as forcefully as Biden. She stayed away from meandering answers – there may have been one or two, but if she is criticized for that, then Biden needs to be scrutinized for talking in favor of gay marriage before he came back a few seconds later and opposed it. (Also, Palin fell into the trap of agreeing with Cheney on the VP role.) What showed tonight, though, is that Palin is best when she speaks as the common man, as the populist, and as a concerned citizen. While she’s no Theodore Roosevelt at this point, she is the closest thing we have to him in the race.

Palin more than held her own tonight. I am sure the polls will say that Biden won the debate, but most importantly, Palin reasserted herself as the best choice McCain could make for his VP. The polls may not move much after this debate, but Palin has stopped the spiral. And now, if the McCain campaign can, they will begin to get back on message. That will be up to McCain to do.

As for Gwen Ifill, I like her – I always feel a special kinship with PBS anchors. She of course, has a financial stake in seeing Obama win, since her book on Obama comes out Inauguration Day, so her impartiality was questioned going into tonight. But as for her objectivity tonight, I thought she did fine. She really didn’t control the subject, Palin and Biden spoke about whatever they wanted, but she didn’t do the annoying Lehrer thing either, although her questions may have been worse than his.

Next up, the second Presidential debate on Tuesday.

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

October Baseball

It's October, which means - MLB Playoff time! This is shaping up to be almost the perfect postseason, and it's just started. Why? The Yankees are not in the playoffs and the Tampa Bay Rays are! Since living in Tampa, I have been a Rays fan, following their futile seasons and up and coming players from time to time. They've always had a lot of young talent, and finally, it is paying off. So I am really happy for the Rays.

But I'm also highly frustrated by this post-season. The White Sox made it to the playoffs, which doesn't bother me at all. But what drives me crazy is how they got here. They won 1-0 against the Twins yesterday. And who was pitching for the White Sox? John Danks. John Danks! He was a Ranger two years ago, we gave up on him and now he just pitched the White Sox into the postseason. And the Rangers starting rotation? Umm… The Rangers have so mismanaged their organizational pitching. Hopefully Nolan Ryan will straighten it all out - maybe he'll make a comeback.

And as happy as I am for the Rays and hope they win it all, it is truly depressing to know that if the Rays win just two games, they will have surpassed the Rangers' entire postseason win total. (The Rangers are 1-9 all time in the postseason and are currently riding a nine game losing streak.)

But even with the frustration, bring on October baseball - where every pitch, every base runner, every fielded ground ball potentially makes the difference between going home and being crowned World Series Champs. Go Rays!