2008 Updated Prognostication

In the continuing race for the White House in '08, if you have been able to stay awake long enough to listen to any of the debates or follow any of the news items, you know there are way too many candidates on both sides. Why do some of these candidates run? Why is Dodd in the race, or Biden, or Brownback, or any other number of names? What are they gaining by running?

A few months ago, I made some presidential predictions here and here. As an update to those posts, I believe that the current field of candidates should be reduced to three for each party. For the Republicans:

1. Rudy Giuliani - still the front-runner in most polls, but remember what I said about his difficulty in persuading social conservatives to support him. It will be interesting to see how his campaign either attempts to bring social conservatives into the fold, or whether he decides to go for more independents and fiscal conservatives who support the war on terror(perhaps aligning with the few McCain supporters). I remain skeptical as to whether he can win the nomination, despite his leading in the polls.

2. Mitt Romney - while he has raised a considerable amount of cash, his flip-flopping on key issues will come back to haunt his campaign. In addition, I still don't see many social conservatives, particularly evangelicals, supporting a Mormon for president. If he had no faith at all, I think he would stand a better chance than being a Mormon, but we'll see.

3. Fred Thompson - Although he hasn't entered the race, he appears poised to jump to the top of the Republican nomination. I don't believe raising money will be a problem for him. If he maintains conservative political views and presents himself as a strong leader, he would seem to jump to the top. However, James Dobson somehow knows whether people are really Christians or not and at one time said Thompson wasn't a Christian, so we'll see how that plays among the religious right. (It is amazing the powers some have on the religious right, such as Dobson's ability to tell whether someone is a Christian, and Robertson's ability to predict hurricane's and explain who God is judging by them....)

So those should be the Republican field. Most surprising omission: John McCain. His candidacy in imploding. I am rather shocked by it, but he has lost his mojo that he had eight years ago and doesn't seem to know how to get it back.

Among Democrats:

1. Hillary Clinton - still the front-runner and still, in my prediction, a 99% lock for the nomination. She's a skilled politician, she's ruthless, she's organized, and she will destroy her opponents. Unless she makes a major gaffe, I don't see her losing the Democratic nomination.

2. Barack Obama - he still enjoys somewhat of a rock star status, but in order to beat Hillary, he is having to run far left, which I think hurts him among independents and open-minded Republicans who admired his charisma and his perceived ability to unite across party lines. The farther he runs left, the more he hurts himself for the general election.

3. Bill Richardson - While I demeaned his candidacy in my previous post, I recant now. He is a governor, albeit of New Mexico, but governors are much better candidates than senators. Richardson needs to highlight any voting records of Hillary and Obama and remain patient should one of them falter. Still a long shot, in fact, he probably still has no shot, but his candidacy will be an intriguing one to watch, especially since he is Hispanic.

Surprising omissions: John Edwards - really, he has nothing. He adds nothing to the dialogue. He should drop out now and go back to his $55,000 per speech stipend to talk about poverty.

While the presidential field should be trimmed to six, I am glad that a few folks are still in the race strictly for entertainment purposes - long live Ron Paul and his paranoia and Dennis Kucinich and his completely left field but well articulated views.

Only six months until primary season.