2008 Presidential Race - An Early Look

So now that the 2006 election is over, all eyes are turning to the Presidential election in 2008. Here's my take on the early possible runners. Today I will cover a few of the Republican contenders.

First impression of Republicans:
So far, a pretty weak field. As was evident in the last election, the Republican Party seemingly lacks a leader after George W. Bush leaves office. No one in the House or Senate has stepped up to take the mantle, except for perhaps McCain. Another indication that the Republican field is weak: Rick Perry is rumored to be a possible VP selection! How does this happen? That's as big a sign of desperation as naming Trent Lott minority whip. Oh well, here's the early candidates:

1. John McCain -
positives: name recognition; seen as a Maverick so would draw independent votes; veteran; has supported and criticized Bush.
negatives: seen as a Maverick which has ticked off many in the Republican base; supported and criticized Bush; his age (he'll be 72 in '08)
chances of winning nomination: At this point, he would be the front-runner, if he can assuage the Republican base over the next 2 years, while maintaining his independent flavor.

2. Rudy Giuliani -
positives: Strong leader during 9/11; "America's Mayor;" Has little legislative record for opponents to run against; Cleaned up NY city; Well-liked.
negatives: very liberal on abortion and gay marriage; left his wife for an affair(family values?); besides being Mayor, what else has he done?
chances of winning nomination: While he is the early front-runner in many polls, there is simply no way he can secure enough of the Republican base to win the nomination.

3. Mitt Romney -
positives: Somehow as a Republican, he was elected Governor of Massachusetts; He gave Ted Kennedy his toughest election in 1994; Successful businessman; Conservative.
negatives: While this may seem very fickle, I am not sure that evangelicals in the Republican Party would support a Mormon for President. But his record and charisma may overcome his religion.
chances of winning nomination: His success in Mass. might be intriguing for voters looking to make in-roads in the NE, but his religious affiliation may hinder his bid.

4. Condoleezza Rice -
positives: She has the most foreign policy experience of any presidential candidate in 2008; She is very articulate and brilliant.
negatives: Her attachment to Bush and the Iraq War has badly wounded her chances; Unless public opinion changes, she may be doomed by the war; Also, although we claim to have come a long way over the last 40 years, she is a woman, she is black, and she is single.
Chances of winning nomination: There has been one single president in our history, 0 women presidents, and 0 black presidents. She is highly qualified for the job, in my opinion, but there are many factors that would unfortunately limit her electability in the South, where prejudice still runs high, and among independents, who are currently against the Bush foreign policy. I hope she runs, though.

5. Bill Frist
positives: Senate majority leader; Conservative on many issues.
negatives: Senators make terrible candidates, traditionally; He is out of office now, so it will be difficult for him to remain in the public eye; He supports stem-cell research, which may hurt him among the conservative base.
chances of winning nomination: I give him little chance. He seems like a boring candidate to me. Alienated many conservatives by supporting stem-cell research.

Any of those names get you going? See what I mean - so far a weak field. That doesn't mean that one of these candidates couldn't make major advances over the next two years. Political opinion changes quickly. Just ask Bush.

Next post: Possible Democratic nominees for President.