2012 Presidential Prediction

Tomorrow brings this seemingly eternal Presidential race to a close.  While there is talk of vote counting potentially lasting for days, I believe by late tomorrow night or early morning Wednesday we will have a clear winner.  If we only look at polls as reported on RealClearPolitics, then it would seem that Obama is coasting to a fairly easy victory tomorrow night.  However, predicting a presidential contest by merely looking at polls is a lazy and faulty approach.  One must also examine the demographics of the polls, the candidates’ personas in the closing moments, and the crowds at the rallies.  In 2008, Obama led in the polls, the crowd size, and the positive demeanor.  He clearly was coasting to victory over Sen. McCain.  But what about this year?  The polls are tied, Romney has the more enthusiastic crowds and the positive message, and the President is focusing on small, petty issues with no unifying theme for a second term.  For the past month, Obama has attempted to motivate his base.  Whether it is talking about contraception, binders, gay marriage, or the latest “revenge” comment, the President clearly finds himself in the same position as McCain/Palin in 2008 – trying to simply motivate the base.  Meanwhile, Romney has secured his base, even among evangelicals, while reaching out strong to independents.  The fact that Michigan and Minnesota are in play demonstrates this. 

Here is where the polls are flawed – the numbers used in many of the polls show a more enthusiastic Democratic base, something that is just not a reality this year like it was in 2008.  Additionally, Romney has passed the “Presidential Test” by performing well in the debates and establishing himself as a competent leader.  The President’s campaign was to make Romney out to be a scary radical.  That strategy failed.  Independents are breaking for Romney, the base is energized, and the President is madly negative.

 

Hurricane Sandy blunted the momentum that Romney had; however, people in Ohio aren’t voting on how the President handled Sandy, so I don’t know how much it helps the President.  But it did hurt Romney due to attention being taken off the campaign (and the make-out session with Christie and Obama hurt Romney as well).  Even still, taking all of this into consideration, I predict Romney wins the election with a 296-242 electoral vote and a popular vote majority of 51% to 48.5%.  I believe this is a conservative prediction.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Romney win Minnesota, Michigan, or Pennsylvania as well; however, those have been such Democratic strongholds that I wouldn’t put much faith in any of those three turning red.  But, I am convinced that tomorrow we will elect the 45^th President of the United States – Mitt Romney.

Here's my prediction: