Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, and Bain

I admit, I was shocked by the election result on November6.  Although the polls showed PresidentObama with a lead, I did not think the voter samples in those polls wereaccurate.  I thought there would be noway that Democratic turnout in 2012 would be equivalent to 2008, and I alsothought that Republican turnout would be higher.  After all, hadn’t people been payingattention the last 4 years to higher unemployment, lower wages, exploding debt,more expensive health care, a debacle in Libya, Obama’s lack of leadership,etc.?  I was wrong, and still a littlebaffled – but watching “Idiocracy” the other night has helped.  Here were the popular vote totals from 2008: 

Obama – 69.2 million votes (53%)

McCain – 59.6 million votes (46%) 

In 2012, these are the results: 

Obama 60.6 million (50.4%)

Romney 57.8 million (48%) 

If someone told me the President would receive 9 millionfewer votes on 2012 than in 2008, I would assume Romney won; however, Romneyreceived 2 million fewer votes than McCain! This is what baffled me the most – how could 2 million people who votedfor McCain in 2008 not come back plus some in 2012 for Romney?  But then I remembered Jose Canseco….

 

When Jose Canseco played for the Oakland A’s, I couldn’tstand him.  I hated the A’s and all theirplayers, maybe Canseco the most.  Butthen, Canseco joined the Rangers, and I became a fan.  Suddenly, I rooted for Canseco and was gladhe was a Ranger.  Same with Deion Sandersand the Cowboys.  As I thought aboutthat, I wondered if my desire for Romney to win overshadowed my former dislikeof him.  In 2008 and through much of the2011-12 primary, I couldn’t stand Mitt – I didn’t like his past flip flops, his“rich guy” persona, his robotic mannerisms, etc.  He only won one election, lost his others,and instituted Romneycare while in office. I flirted with Pawlenty, Gingrich, Santorum, Cain, and even briefly Perry (I hadto take a long shower after that brief encounter – not my finest moment – I haven’teven voted for him for Governor and suddenly I found myself testing the watersbecause of Mitt) before I finally settled for Mitt.  Mainly because Mitt won and no one was left.  As the election went on, I grew to like Romneyand really hoped he would win.  But ittook me 5 years to like the Governor. Could the American public warm to him in 2 months?  Apparently not.  The President’s campaign to paint Romney asan out-of-touch-mushy-rich-guy worked. Maybe it worked because it was partly true and I was just blinded by mydesire to win?  I don’t know.  I do think he is a good man and has a nicefamily, but I also know that this time last year I couldn’t stand him.   

The President also lost 9 million votes due to his recordthrough 4 years in office, but he could afford that due to the large amount ofhis supporters who would vote for him even if he went on a murder spree; Romneycouldn’t afford his loss of 2 million.  Soturn out, as it always is, was critical. The President had the organization and enough of a motivated base to pull outthe win. This is the first time a President has been re-elected while receivingless votes than the first time.  But hiscampaign against Romney convinced enough people to stay home rather than tovote for either.  Negative advertising,particularly when unanswered, works.

 

Of course, it cannot be ignored that the Republican Party has donenothing to reach out to Hispanic voters, and in fact has done quite a bit toalienate them, but that needs to be a post all on its own.  Add to that, the Republicans nominated a fewidiots for the Senate. And, Hurricane Sandy turned out to be a time for the Presidentto actually act like a President for a photo op, get to third base with Gov.Christie, and sway last minute voters his way. But organization, dividing-and-conquering, turnout, small-mindedpolitics, fear, and negative advertising are what ultimately won this for the President.  The Republicans contributed by ignoringHispanics, nominating a rich guy who may just be unlikeable to most(although hewas the best available at the time), and hoping for a different turnout.  This has to change by 2016.  (Marco Rubio, please study up on foreignpolicy and keep yourself out of any scandals or gaffes.)

2012 Presidential Prediction

Tomorrow brings this seemingly eternal Presidential race to a close.  While there is talk of vote counting potentially lasting for days, I believe by late tomorrow night or early morning Wednesday we will have a clear winner.  If we only look at polls as reported on RealClearPolitics, then it would seem that Obama is coasting to a fairly easy victory tomorrow night.  However, predicting a presidential contest by merely looking at polls is a lazy and faulty approach.  One must also examine the demographics of the polls, the candidates’ personas in the closing moments, and the crowds at the rallies.  In 2008, Obama led in the polls, the crowd size, and the positive demeanor.  He clearly was coasting to victory over Sen. McCain.  But what about this year?  The polls are tied, Romney has the more enthusiastic crowds and the positive message, and the President is focusing on small, petty issues with no unifying theme for a second term.  For the past month, Obama has attempted to motivate his base.  Whether it is talking about contraception, binders, gay marriage, or the latest “revenge” comment, the President clearly finds himself in the same position as McCain/Palin in 2008 – trying to simply motivate the base.  Meanwhile, Romney has secured his base, even among evangelicals, while reaching out strong to independents.  The fact that Michigan and Minnesota are in play demonstrates this. 

Here is where the polls are flawed – the numbers used in many of the polls show a more enthusiastic Democratic base, something that is just not a reality this year like it was in 2008.  Additionally, Romney has passed the “Presidential Test” by performing well in the debates and establishing himself as a competent leader.  The President’s campaign was to make Romney out to be a scary radical.  That strategy failed.  Independents are breaking for Romney, the base is energized, and the President is madly negative.

 

Hurricane Sandy blunted the momentum that Romney had; however, people in Ohio aren’t voting on how the President handled Sandy, so I don’t know how much it helps the President.  But it did hurt Romney due to attention being taken off the campaign (and the make-out session with Christie and Obama hurt Romney as well).  Even still, taking all of this into consideration, I predict Romney wins the election with a 296-242 electoral vote and a popular vote majority of 51% to 48.5%.  I believe this is a conservative prediction.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Romney win Minnesota, Michigan, or Pennsylvania as well; however, those have been such Democratic strongholds that I wouldn’t put much faith in any of those three turning red.  But, I am convinced that tomorrow we will elect the 45^th President of the United States – Mitt Romney.

Here's my prediction: