Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, and Bain

I admit, I was shocked by the election result on November6.  Although the polls showed PresidentObama with a lead, I did not think the voter samples in those polls wereaccurate.  I thought there would be noway that Democratic turnout in 2012 would be equivalent to 2008, and I alsothought that Republican turnout would be higher.  After all, hadn’t people been payingattention the last 4 years to higher unemployment, lower wages, exploding debt,more expensive health care, a debacle in Libya, Obama’s lack of leadership,etc.?  I was wrong, and still a littlebaffled – but watching “Idiocracy” the other night has helped.  Here were the popular vote totals from 2008: 

Obama – 69.2 million votes (53%)

McCain – 59.6 million votes (46%) 

In 2012, these are the results: 

Obama 60.6 million (50.4%)

Romney 57.8 million (48%) 

If someone told me the President would receive 9 millionfewer votes on 2012 than in 2008, I would assume Romney won; however, Romneyreceived 2 million fewer votes than McCain! This is what baffled me the most – how could 2 million people who votedfor McCain in 2008 not come back plus some in 2012 for Romney?  But then I remembered Jose Canseco….

 

When Jose Canseco played for the Oakland A’s, I couldn’tstand him.  I hated the A’s and all theirplayers, maybe Canseco the most.  Butthen, Canseco joined the Rangers, and I became a fan.  Suddenly, I rooted for Canseco and was gladhe was a Ranger.  Same with Deion Sandersand the Cowboys.  As I thought aboutthat, I wondered if my desire for Romney to win overshadowed my former dislikeof him.  In 2008 and through much of the2011-12 primary, I couldn’t stand Mitt – I didn’t like his past flip flops, his“rich guy” persona, his robotic mannerisms, etc.  He only won one election, lost his others,and instituted Romneycare while in office. I flirted with Pawlenty, Gingrich, Santorum, Cain, and even briefly Perry (I hadto take a long shower after that brief encounter – not my finest moment – I haven’teven voted for him for Governor and suddenly I found myself testing the watersbecause of Mitt) before I finally settled for Mitt.  Mainly because Mitt won and no one was left.  As the election went on, I grew to like Romneyand really hoped he would win.  But ittook me 5 years to like the Governor. Could the American public warm to him in 2 months?  Apparently not.  The President’s campaign to paint Romney asan out-of-touch-mushy-rich-guy worked. Maybe it worked because it was partly true and I was just blinded by mydesire to win?  I don’t know.  I do think he is a good man and has a nicefamily, but I also know that this time last year I couldn’t stand him.   

The President also lost 9 million votes due to his recordthrough 4 years in office, but he could afford that due to the large amount ofhis supporters who would vote for him even if he went on a murder spree; Romneycouldn’t afford his loss of 2 million.  Soturn out, as it always is, was critical. The President had the organization and enough of a motivated base to pull outthe win. This is the first time a President has been re-elected while receivingless votes than the first time.  But hiscampaign against Romney convinced enough people to stay home rather than tovote for either.  Negative advertising,particularly when unanswered, works.

 

Of course, it cannot be ignored that the Republican Party has donenothing to reach out to Hispanic voters, and in fact has done quite a bit toalienate them, but that needs to be a post all on its own.  Add to that, the Republicans nominated a fewidiots for the Senate. And, Hurricane Sandy turned out to be a time for the Presidentto actually act like a President for a photo op, get to third base with Gov.Christie, and sway last minute voters his way. But organization, dividing-and-conquering, turnout, small-mindedpolitics, fear, and negative advertising are what ultimately won this for the President.  The Republicans contributed by ignoringHispanics, nominating a rich guy who may just be unlikeable to most(although hewas the best available at the time), and hoping for a different turnout.  This has to change by 2016.  (Marco Rubio, please study up on foreignpolicy and keep yourself out of any scandals or gaffes.)

2012 Presidential Prediction

Tomorrow brings this seemingly eternal Presidential race to a close.  While there is talk of vote counting potentially lasting for days, I believe by late tomorrow night or early morning Wednesday we will have a clear winner.  If we only look at polls as reported on RealClearPolitics, then it would seem that Obama is coasting to a fairly easy victory tomorrow night.  However, predicting a presidential contest by merely looking at polls is a lazy and faulty approach.  One must also examine the demographics of the polls, the candidates’ personas in the closing moments, and the crowds at the rallies.  In 2008, Obama led in the polls, the crowd size, and the positive demeanor.  He clearly was coasting to victory over Sen. McCain.  But what about this year?  The polls are tied, Romney has the more enthusiastic crowds and the positive message, and the President is focusing on small, petty issues with no unifying theme for a second term.  For the past month, Obama has attempted to motivate his base.  Whether it is talking about contraception, binders, gay marriage, or the latest “revenge” comment, the President clearly finds himself in the same position as McCain/Palin in 2008 – trying to simply motivate the base.  Meanwhile, Romney has secured his base, even among evangelicals, while reaching out strong to independents.  The fact that Michigan and Minnesota are in play demonstrates this. 

Here is where the polls are flawed – the numbers used in many of the polls show a more enthusiastic Democratic base, something that is just not a reality this year like it was in 2008.  Additionally, Romney has passed the “Presidential Test” by performing well in the debates and establishing himself as a competent leader.  The President’s campaign was to make Romney out to be a scary radical.  That strategy failed.  Independents are breaking for Romney, the base is energized, and the President is madly negative.

 

Hurricane Sandy blunted the momentum that Romney had; however, people in Ohio aren’t voting on how the President handled Sandy, so I don’t know how much it helps the President.  But it did hurt Romney due to attention being taken off the campaign (and the make-out session with Christie and Obama hurt Romney as well).  Even still, taking all of this into consideration, I predict Romney wins the election with a 296-242 electoral vote and a popular vote majority of 51% to 48.5%.  I believe this is a conservative prediction.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Romney win Minnesota, Michigan, or Pennsylvania as well; however, those have been such Democratic strongholds that I wouldn’t put much faith in any of those three turning red.  But, I am convinced that tomorrow we will elect the 45^th President of the United States – Mitt Romney.

Here's my prediction:

      

Obadiah: 1998-2012

In December 1999, Jessica and I went to the city pound to adopt our first pet as a married couple. As we went down the row of dogs, we stopped in front of a beautiful Golden Retriever mix. We opened the door to let him out into the play area. The first thing he did was stand up on his back legs and place his front paws on Jessica’s shoulders. This was the beginning of 13 years with a wonderful dog, Obadiah.


We spent the drive home thinking about a good name, considering Jeremiah until settling on Obadiah. At this point, Obadiah was about 18 months old. He was a stray that was picked up in a field somewhere in Arlington, no tags or collar. Obadiah was big – not fat, but big – 80 lbs. His hair made him look big, but under that thick coat was really a pretty skinny dog. But, I always wondered if he got too big for his owners and they just let him go, or if he was always a stray. However, he never had an issue with being house broken, so my guess is he had an original owner. Whoever it was missed out on a majestic dog that created so many memories and gave so much love to our family.

We always called him a Golden Retriever mix, but one vet thought he might have some Chow in him while another suspected wolf. Obadiah had long legs like a wolf, and some grey hairs under his thick red coat. Of course, we never shared the wolf part with the groomers, because many have a policy against wolf mixes.

Our first house was very small and had no fence. So we had to walk him on a leash in the back yard for him to use the restroom. In hindsight, this was probably a great bonding time, as we spent countless hours in the morning, afternoon, night, middle of the night, in the backyard with him saying, “Outside Obe, Outside.” “Good boy, Obadiah!” For the first 11 years of his life with us, I do not remember any accidents in the house with him, even if he was in the house for over 12 hours.

Another thing about our first house. When Obe was neutered, he immediately tore out his stitches, so he had to wear a cone. Here was this giant dog with a giant cone on his head banging into door frames and walls in a very small house. Also, although Obe never had an accident in the house, he was far from perfect. I never will forget coming home one afternoon to a ransacked house. Every magazine was shredded and spread across the entire house. A large candle was in tiny pieces all over the house. And, our wedding pictures were gnawed and chewed through. While Obadiah spent a lot of time by himself at home, he would get lonely. Early in his life, he rectified this by destroying things! But even through this adolescent behavior, our love for Obadiah continued to grow. He would also demonstrate his loneliness by making it very difficult for anyone who was charged with taking care of him at our home while we were out of town. On more than one occasion, Kathy had to physically wrestle Obadiah away from the back door just so she could exit. He was so lonely, he didn’t want her to leave.

Our first home was in a pocket of country in the midst of an expanding suburb. Our neighbors were cows. One of my favorite pictures is Obe nose-to-nose with a cow through the barbed-wire fence. As big as Obadiah was, he was a fairly timid dog – definitely not an alpha dog at all. I don’t remember him ever being aggressive toward another human, but I am confident he made a fine, intimidating watch dog to strangers.

Obadiah had other companions. Macie, a stray that came to our home during a storm, lived with us for a year, but was given away before we moved to Florida. Maggie, a beautiful dog we adopted in Tampa, had to go away once Grant was born, since Maggie was just too crazy. But not Obe. Ranger loved Obadiah. Ranger would often use Obadiah as his own personal sofa. Prim and Obe made fast friends. We were concerned with how Obe would take to a cat, but he and Prim were quickly comfortable with each other. He would even let Prim drink out of his water bowl, which is a big deal since Obadiah always remained territorial around his food and water. He was always gentle around our kids. But more on that later.

Obadiah was a fence destroyer. If he was left in a backyard too long, he would find a way under a fence, or simply through a fence. We have replaced many pickets over the last 13 years due to him. He has also busted through screens. Anytime he ever escaped, he always came back, sometimes through the same hole he created, other times by showing up at the front door.

Obadiah has lived in every house we have lived in. He traveled in my backseat to Tampa. And two years later, he traveled in the back seat back to Texas. While in Tampa, the boys who came to our house always feared and loved him. They would be in the game room, which was in a sunken patio in our house. Obadiah would come to the entry door at the top of the steps and look down at the boys. They would all exclaim, “Mufasa!” when he would do this.

Obadiah was terrified of storms. During storms he would pace all night. Or stick his nose in my back in the middle of the night as if to say, “Don’t you realize it’s storming!” I haven’t slept through a storm in 13 years as a result. This anxiety got worse as he aged.

Obadiah has always been a gentle dog, unless another unknown animal came into his area. Our house in Tampa had a crawl space, where Obe would go to stay cool. One night, he was outside and we were inside watching TV. We suddenly heard loud banging, scuffling, barking, and screeching under our floor. I ran out the back door, and out from under the house came two cats followed by Obadiah. One cat got away from him. The other cat…

Obadiah loved our kids. As a baby, Grant would pull Obe’s hair, crawl on him, sit on him, etc. Obadiah would calmly lie on the floor and let him do whatever he wanted. “Diah” was one of Grant’s first words. When Claire was born, one afternoon she was lying in her bouncy seat and some neighbors with kids came over. Obadiah kept herding the kids away from Claire. He did not trust the kids to get too close to the new baby in the family. Tessa also deeply loved Obadiah. She would use him as a pillow and was always interested in his health as he aged. Tessa also had the most disgusting experience with Obadiah. All I’ll say is, Tessa was sleeping on the floor and Obadiah got sick on the floor. That was definitely a middle-of-the-night bath to remember – just ask Jessica.

Obadiah loved to go on walks. If we said the word “walk” or if we picked up his leash, he was ready to go. And if we didn’t walk fast enough, he would pull us. One of the sad moments of his aging life was the realization that he couldn’t go on walks anymore. The last walk we took him on, Jessica had to go back and get the car just to get him home. It was tragic as we realized it was his last walk.

For almost 13 years, Obadiah brought us joy. However, as a large dog, his arthritis in his back hips became more severe and also was unresponsive to medication. We made and canceled at least four appointments with the vet as a result. However, the realization that he could no longer do the things he loved, as well as the knowledge that his condition would only continue to deteriorate, led us to decide for his sake that the time had come. For all the love he had given us as well as the wonderful memories, I hope his last vision of me petting him and looking at him as he went to sleep was a pleasant one. He looked calm and happy. Like he knew he lived a good, long life.

It is strange to see his bowls by the back door. Every day for 13 years those had been filled with food and water. Now, they are empty. I still hear him bark at night. And the first morning without him, I woke to thunder and lightning outside. I missed his nose in my back and his pacing. He was the first member of the family for Jessica and me. And the kids miss him too. When we told them, we all cried for a while. And we shared memories. Obadiah will always hold a special place in our family. And should God’s care for his creation extend into eternity for domesticated animals as well, as C. S. Lewis contends, we just may see Obadiah again someday.