Election 2012 - The Republican Field

In less than 14 months, the vote for the 2012 election will occur. In less than 4 months, the primaries will begin. With the economic conditions worse than 2008, President Obama appears to be very beatable. He is searching for any reason he can claim to be re-elected. It wouldn’t surprise me if one or two Democrats challenge him in the primary. But for right now, he is unopposed. So it’s time to turn attention to the challengers within the Republican primary. Much can change between now and January, but positions are beginning to solidify; however, I am reminded of my previous post here from 2007. On to the current participants:

Rick Perry (“The Aggie”) – Perry entered the debate the front-runner; however, his last debate performance was weak, so he needed a good showing tonight. He has a number of qualities going for him, but he seems to be weak in articulating his ideas. (It may be the Aggie in him). I have never been a Rick Perry fan. I did not support him for Governor, and I don’t care too much for his personality. But in a weird turn of events, I found myself supporting his candidacy for president over the others running. I admire Perry for defending his position on immigration, and I think he’s right. The Republican Party cannot continue to bash illegal immigration without continuing to lose the Hispanic vote. If the party loses the Hispanic vote, then welcome to becoming a minority party in the US. So, while Perry’s position is considered “soft” in a Republican primary, his position will play well among independents. However, he stumbled badly in saying that people who disagreed with him were “heartless.” Bad move – his campaign staff had to cringe at that point. In speeches, Perry seems to be adequate; however, he struggles with his words in debates, channeling Bush at times with the way he stumbles over words. While being a good debater is not a requirement to win an election, at this point in the campaign, these debates are the only chance many voters have to see the candidates. So as Perry struggles to articulate his positions, stumbles over a prepared attack on Romney, and wobbles on questions concerning foreign policy (see his answer on Pakistan), the momentum of his campaign halts and doubt enters into the minds of the voters as to how strong a candidate he is. It is evident that running for president was a recent decision, as he appears to still be trying to wing it in the debates. This has to change or he will fizzle out. In fact, he may already be fizzling. Another obstacle he faces involves convincing others that as another Texas governor who stylistically sounds like W, he will somehow be different. Of course, candidates need to earn trust of the voters. However, as an aggie, Perry must convince others that his promises and commitments will last longer than 10 months. Because, as we have learned about aggies, what they promise today may change tomorrow.

Mitt Romney (“The Overly Robotic One”) – I don’t get Mitt Romney. He’s trying way too hard to channel Reagan. But he is keeping some hair gel company in business. He gives very good answers and is extremely comfortable discussing a variety of issues. He appears to be sharp, but I get the impression that he has never struggled in life. Not that one has to, but I just wonder if he understands what people go through on a daily basis. Many of his answers seem cold. He’s polished, but he should be, he’s been running for president for over five years. However, fifteen years ago, he ran to the left of Ted Kennedy for Senate. He passed Romneycare which became the blueprint for Obamacare. As he began to run for president five years ago, he realized he had to change all his views. No matter how well he answers questions, I never really believe that he believes what he is saying. I think he knows what he needs to say and articulates it well, but he is very Dukakis like in his passion. He will probably be the nominee, but I just don’t get the appeal.

Michelle Bachmann (“Ms. Annoying”) – Bachmann has become insignificant. Stylistically, I cannot stand the end of Bachmann’s answers. After every answer, she squints her eyes, purses her lips, and smirks. On substance, she misrepresented history, taking the exchange between the Danbury Baptists and Thomas Jefferson completely out of context. She tried to act like her accusation concerning Perry and HPV and harmful side-effects was never said. She tries to include the words “Tea Party” in every answer, and apparently she loves to say “innocent little girls” over and over. When she completes her answer, it seems like she says to herself, “Wow, that was really good. I’m proud of myself, people like me. By the way, does everyone remember that I created the Tea Party caucus in the House?”

Ron Paul (“The Crazy Uncle”) – I’m not going to waste much time on Paul. His supporters love him, but they aren’t many in number. For every good point he makes, he follows it up with an off-the-wall comment. He was strong in the debate last night, but he was not asked any foreign policy questions. Unlike Romney, I believe Paul believes every word he says.

Newt Gingrich (“The Professor”) – Newt is the smartest guy on the stage. He is articulate. And he is completely unelectable. It’s why Perry said that he wished he could mate Cain and Gingrich together to make a VP. Gingrich will find his way into the cabinet as Secretary of State in the next administration.

Herman Cain (“The-Guy-Everybody-Likes-But-Nobody-Thinks-Can-Win”) – The most confident, comfortable, articulate candidate on the stage. But when the moniker explains who he is, it reads “Former CEO of Godfather Pizza.” It is practically impossible for someone to go from a CEO of a company to the Presidency without any prior elected office experience. At the same time, everyone loves him. But since everyone also thinks he won’t win, he gets overlooked. Potentially a good VP candidate.

Rick Santorum (“The Guy Most Likely to Slash Someone’s Throat on Stage”) – Someone needs to buy a massage for Santorum. Or a drink. Or give him an aspirin so his pain goes away. He always looks angry. Relax, Rick. Take it easy. I know you have spent four years running for president and are frustrated that you are at one percent, but being angry isn’t helping you.

Jon Huntsman (“The Worst Joke Teller”) – Huntsman hopes his moderate appeal will help him in New Hampshire, which he hopes will propel him to the upper-tier. But Huntsman has hurt himself early on by attacking conservatives within the party. I like many of his positions on science and foreign policy, but he comes off as disingenuous much of the time. He is also really bad a trying to be funny as his attempts at humor always fall flat.

Gary Johnson (“The Stage Crasher”) – Did anyone know Gary Johnson was running for president? Did anyone know he was a former governor of New Mexico? I kept thinking that security accidentally let someone in last night, or that perhaps SNL had infiltrated the stage. But basically, Johnson is a younger Ron Paul. Not sure why he was included. But he had one of the best jabs of the night: “My neighbors two dogs have created more shovel ready jobs that Obama has.”

The Moderators: The job of a moderator should be clear – it’s your job to ask questions and moderate the debate. That’s it. I don’t care about word clouds, I am tired of YouTube questions, I’m not interested in how you decided the sound signal for the time limit. Just ask the questions. The less we see you, the better. You shouldn’t be so casual. Cut out the jokes. Stop giggling over your mistakes. Again, just ask the questions. You’re not running for president.

Conclusion: Romney won the debate, Perry lost. The others hope to be in the top three. Meanwhile, every day the pressure mounts on Chris Christie to get into the race. I don’t see anybody else who can shake up the field at this point.