Claw and Antler Time

Now that the Texas Rangers are post-season bound, it is time to look back at my 2010 prediction. At the beginning of the season, after assessing the Rangers’ pitching and line-up and comparing them to the rest of the AL West, I predicted a 79-83 record and a 3rd place finish in the Division. Thankfully, I was off by 11 wins. Last Saturday, when the Rangers clinched the West was a happy, happy day. My kids are tired of me reminding them that the Rangers have made the playoffs.

What about the season? If at the beginning of the season I had said that Scott Feldman and Rich Harden would combine for a 12-16 record, Josh Hamilton would barely play the last month of the season, Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler would spend multiple stints on the DL, Vlad would hit .200 in July, Derek Holland would still be struggling, Saltalamacchia would be off the team, Chris Davis would hit .192 with 1 home run, and our catching would be pathetic offensively, I would expect this to be a down year. But somehow, in the magic that is 2010, the Rangers have taken all of that and come close to meeting Nolan Ryan’s expectation of 92 wins. Not only that, but they held a double digit lead in the West over the other three teams and may possibly possess the MVP, Manager of the Year, and Rookie of the Year.

So what of my prediction? My misses:
1. I assumed the Rangers’ starters needed a minimum of 70 wins to be postseason bound. This year, the starters went 58-51. What has compensated for this is that a number of relievers have more wins than all but three of our starters. Our starters have kept us in games that our offense has been able to win late. The 58 wins are 12 less wins than our starters had last year.

2. Scott Feldman. While I made allowance that last year was a fluke, I still predicted that he “had found his groove” and would win 16 games. Instead, he is 5-9 as a starter and 7-11 overall. He’s been terrible.

3. Wilson. I predicted a sub .500 pitcher. He has instead been the staff ace. While I don’t know if he has enough gas to make it through the postseason, he has certainly been a pleasant surprise for me this year.

4. Lewis. I did not expect him to be on the team for long this year. However, with a little run support, he could easily have 16 or 17 wins. If the offense had performed for Lewis and Lee, the starters would have been much closer to the 70 win mark.

5. AL West. I thought the West would be a good division. While my 79 win prediction would have earned the Rangers 3rd place, they would have only been 2 games out of first. The Angels underperformed, the As were pretty much what they should be, and Seattle was pathetic. The lineup they ran out there each night was awful.

My hits:
1. I predicted the failure of Rich Harden. Although, he has been even worse than I predicted.

2. Catcher and 1st base. I questioned the legitimacy of any of our first basemen and catchers. While the Rangers made trades to deal with these positions, the offense has still been lagging. I wouldn’t be surprised if the offensive production by our catchers and first basemen was the worst in the league. However, the postseason starts everything over again, so maybe this will change.

3. I questioned the overall health of the team: most notably, Hamilton and Kinsler. While it appears most of the team is now getting healthy, important pieces have been out significant time. Most alarmingly though is the current Josh Hamilton situation. Without a healthy Josh, our postseason offense is much weakened. And the guy who picked up the slack for Josh, David Murphy, is now nursing an injury. The health of the team is still a big concern going into the postseason. Hopefully Josh is healthy.

4. Hunter. I predicted he would be a great success, which for the most part he has been.

5. I thought the new ownership could make some moves to improve the team, which they have. Aside from Christian Guzman, they have made solid trades to go for it this year. That’s exciting. And it has made them better, given them a solid ace for the postseason, and kept the locker room a positive place. This is a fun team to root for.

So, I don’t know how they did it. When one looks at the offensive holes, the pitching record, and the shaky health of the team, one can only believe that this has truly been a magical year. A walk-off wild pitch, walk-off HBP, and walk-off strikeout are three examples of the baseball magic at the Ballpark. The steady leadership of Ron Washington should certainly receive a lot of credit. He has kept this young team calm, has weathered an unsettled ownership mess, and has really personified the team’s ability to come each day ready to win. While he may not be the best in-game manager, he deserves a lot of credit for where this team is. Without an unsettled ownership situation over the past year, Wash may not have survived as the manager. But he has won my respect for the way he leads the team. Josh Hamilton has been the best player in baseball. Through the Rangers’ tough stretches, Josh carried the team. I hope he can have a monster postseason. It will be a shame if the last month keeps him from being league MVP.

My postseason prediction: They will end their 9 game postseason losing streak, win at least their first postseason series, and quite possibly ride the claw and antlers all the way to the World Series win.

More specifically: Rangers will defeat the Rays 3-1. Then defeat the Twins 4-3. The defeat the Phillies 4-3 with Cliff Lee winning 3 games in the series.