My 2010 Ranger Prediction

Lifelong Ranger fans have experienced more agony than triumph. We are constantly teased with “wait until next year,” “a bat away,” “look at all this pitching coming,” “DVD,” etc. For a while now, the organization has pointed to 2010 as the breakout year. With Hicks selling the team, young talent beginning to blossom, and a strong season in ’09, many prognosticators believe 2010 will be the Rangers’ year to claim the West. Nolan Ryan expects it, Josh Hamilton predicts it, local writers seem to hope for it. So will this be the fourth season the Rangers make the playoffs?

According to the late Johnny Oates, in order to make the playoffs, the starting rotation for a MLB team must average 15 wins per starter. In other words, a team’s starters should win 75 games. That total allows the bullpen realistically to pick up additional wins which will put the team into the playoffs. Looking over the stats of the three playoff teams, he’s pretty much right on. In 1996, the starting rotation (Hill, Pavlik, Witt, Oliver, Gross, and Burkett) had 77 wins, or 15.4 wins per pitcher in a 5 man rotation. That was arguably the best Ranger team in the last 20 years. The 1998 starters (Helling, Sele, Burkett, Oliver, Loaiza, Witt, and Stottlemeyer) won 71 games and the 1999 bunch (Helling, Sele, Burkett, Morgan, Clark, Loaiza, Glynn) won only 67. While those two teams won the division, the team was swept in the playoffs both years.

Last year, the starters earned 71 victories, but did not make the playoffs. While that 71 matches the 1998 team and exceeds the 1999 team, the West is much better now than it was 10 years ago. So I think Oates’ assessment that a good team will have 5 starters averaging 15 wins each is a good indicator of the team’s success. How will our starters fair this year? Here are my predictions:

Feldman – 16 wins. He had 17 wins last year. He may match that again, but I think he will be lucky to. While I can easily see him barely reaching 10, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt that he has found his groove.

Harden – 10 wins. In the past, Harden has been a great pitcher when healthy. However, he is never healthy. This spring, he has looked awful. I don’t expect much from him. Ten wins may be too optimistic. Hopefully, Nolan Ryan’s endurance will rub off on him, but I am not too hopeful.

Wilson – 8 wins. I have no confidence at all in this guy. He’ll pitch all year, so I assume he’ll pick up a few wins, but he will end the year with more losses than victories. 8-13.

Harrison – 8 wins. Will he stay healthy? Is he any good? I see him as a .500 pitcher.

Lewis – 7 wins. Are we really thinking a guy who had to go to Japan to find a job is suddenly going to be a great MLB pitcher?

Hunter – 12 wins. Hopefully he will get healthy and get back in the rotation soon, probably replacing a hurt Harden, an ineffective Wilson, or Lewis. He may be the team’s second best pitcher, but is currently hurt.

Total wins for starters: 61. Well short of Oates’ 75. Other spot starters might up this total to 65 or so, but still, I see the rotation short of ’09 totals and not strong enough to compete with Seattle or the Angels.

The shakiness of the rotation is only part of the problem. Kinsler is on the DL already. The catching situation is unsettled. Will Hamilton, Vlad, and Young hold up? Will Andrus have a sophomore slump? Will Chris Davis spend all year in the majors? Last year was exciting, and I am excited to see how they do this year, but realistically, I don’t see a winning team. Perhaps once the sale is official, the team can make a move or two to improve. Much will be answered in the first 20 games. Ron Washington’s teams have started slow every season. They (especially Washington) cannot afford a 7-13 start.

I am ready for the season and hope that in September I can look back at this post and be so wrong. But from my amateur assessment, I see the Rangers finishing 3rd in the division with an 79-83 record. Even so, I will be cheering for them all the way.